In recent years, the global financial market has been in turmoil, and there is a momentum of another financial crisis. At the same time, the price of gold has risen continuously, and the risk aversion is strong. The domestic stock market did not drop sharply after Monday’s opening, but opened higher; the commodity market trends were different, and there was no systematic slump. Careful analysis, we will find that the recent decline in European and American stock markets, relative to the rise in previous years, is only adjustment; and gold rise, technically, is also a rebound after a long decline. However, as the economy continues to slump in China, the market worries are rising. In my opinion, the domestic economic downturn is inevitable, but when it comes to collapse, is unfounded. Devaluation of the RMB is the need of the domestic economic situation, and who is not related to pressure. No devaluation, economic death, devaluation, the financial crisis may erupt. Therefore, how to demote can reflect the level of managers. Only the reform of the supply side has been successful, the RMB does not need devaluation. But high quality products and services must require high-quality people and high-quality society to produce. What is high quality? Keeping a good faith is the foundation of high quality. If you don’t have this foundation, you have more wealth, and you are just a tyrant. The economy continues to slump, the devaluation of the renminbi, the biggest consequence is that assets shrink, but ordinary people’s life will not be too much impact. After all, the domestic economy is large enough to maintain the basic necessities of life, that is, a large amount of body. Domestic economy, from the basic necessities of life, extended to the basic necessities of life to play, add a "play", will open up a lot of room for development. At present, the systematic risk of commodity futures market is not big, or should pay attention to the basic situation of varieties. In recent years, the rise of iron ore, rebar, oil and other varieties have come from their respective fundamentals, and the macroeconomic has little impact on them. The iron and steel industry may have bottomed out, but the overall economy is still sinking. "Bottoming" industry, the supply continues to decrease, which led to price rebound; but the macroeconomic downturn caused consumption continues to decrease, which may lead to "bottoming" industry rebound in prices, a high drop, thus reaching a new low. The macro economy does not touch the bottom, and the industry has little significance. Therefore, the current market is: prices rise from the industry’s own production, prices fell from the macroeconomic downturn. Rise can not form potential, fall space is not big, band market is the most likely. But because the price is generally low enough, so once the rebound will not be small. But the possibility of the above quotes will come from the fundamentals, the macro systemic impact will not be too big. In the global geopolitical and economic environment is not very stable under the background of the commodity market, it is difficult to find a stable opportunity, investors can only be carefully studied, in order to intensive and meticulous farming, to find a small chance. If the economy shrinks or oscillates, don’t expect the futures market to have an extra good opportunity. The operating principle of the author is, pay attention to the basic situation, have the opportunity to bargain hunting; great profits lead to increased supply of varieties, can be.

察言观市:基本面主导近期的商品行情   近一段时间以来,全球金融市场动荡不安,大有再来一场金融危机的势头,与此同时,黄金价格连续大涨,避险情绪浓厚。国内股市周一开盘后并未大幅下跌,反而低开高走;商品市场走势各异,没有出现系统性的普跌。   仔细分析,我们会发现,欧美股市近期的下跌,相对于前几年的上涨来讲,只是调整而已;而黄金的上涨,从技术上看,也是长期下跌之后的反弹。只不过,由于中国经济持续低迷,引发市场人士的担忧情绪升温。   在笔者看来,国内经济持续低迷不可避免,但说到崩溃,则是杞人忧天。人民币贬值是国内经济形势的需要,跟谁打压毫不相关。不贬值,经济“死”;贬值,金融危机可能爆发。因此,如何贬,才能体现出管理者水平高低。只有供给侧改革成功了,人民币才不需要贬值。   但高品质的产品和服务,必定需要高品质的人和高品质的社会才能产生。什么是高品质?守规矩、讲信用是高品质的基础,如果没有这一基础,你的财富再多,你也只是一个土豪。   经济持续低迷,人民币贬值,带来的最大后果是资产缩水,但普通人的生活不会受太大影响。毕竟国内的经济总量足够大,维持基本的衣食住行,就是很大的体量。国内的经济,要从衣食住行,扩展到衣食住行玩,增加一个“玩”,就会打开很大的发展空间。   当前,商品期货市场系统性风险不大,还是应该关注各品种基本面情况。近期,铁矿石、螺纹钢、油脂等品种的上涨均来自于各自基本面,宏观经济对其影响不大。铁矿石、钢铁行业可能已经“触底”,但宏观经济整体依然处于下沉之中。“触底”的行业,供应不断减少,这导致价格反弹;但宏观经济下滑引发消费不断减少,这又可能导致“触底”行业的价格反弹高度下降,从而创出新低。宏观经济不“触底”,行业“触底”意义不大。   因此,当前的行情是:价格上涨来自于行业自身的减产,价格下跌来自于宏观经济的低迷。涨无法形成势,跌的空间也不大,波段行情可能性最大。但因为价格普遍足够低,所以,一旦反弹幅度也不会小。但以上所说的可能性行情均会来自于基本面,宏观系统性的影响不会太大。   在全球地缘政治环境和经济环境不是很稳定的背景下,商品市场也很难找到稳定的机会,投资者只能精耕细作,仔细研究,方能寻找到细小的机会。如果经济萎缩、振荡,也不要指望期货市场能有额外的好机会。   笔者的操作原则是,重点关注基本面情况,有机会就抄底;利润很大导致供应增加的品种,可以做空。   只有宏观和行业的变动方向一致时,大机会才有望来临。   (作者单位:中投天琪期货)   版权声明:本网所有内容,凡来源:“期货日报”的所有文字、图片和音视频资料,版权均属期货日报所有,任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发布 发表。已经本网协议授权的媒体、网站,在下载使用时必须注明"稿件来源:期货日报",违者本网将依法追究责任。相关的主题文章: